Latest Projections: Slight Dip for the Conservatives
cross-posted from the DemocraticSPACE 41st Canadian Election site New polls by Nanos and Ekos show a slight dip for the Conservatives. The latest aggregate polling between Oct 4-20 gives the following projections: CONSERVATIVE / 40.4% / 146 seats LIBERAL / 28.4% / 90 seats NDP / 14.2% / 28 seats BLOC / 9.1% / 44 seats GREEN / 6.8% / 0 seats

Democratic Reform Helps Conservative Majority
Correcting the under-representation of fast-growing provinces (ON, BC, AB) makes it easier for the Conservatives to win a majority government, because these are regions where the Conservatives are strongest. This move would change the electoral math in Canada, making it easier for the Conservatives to win a majority without a breakthrough in Quebec. An article a while back in the Globe & Mail summarizes one possible scenario for increasing the size of parliament. Under the Globe’s scenario, Ontario would gain 21 seats, BC 7 and Alberta 6. All othe

Conservatives Near Majority Territory
cross-posted from DemocraticSPACE’s 41st Canadian Election site Stephen Harper’s Conservatives are on the cusp of majority territory, according to the latest DemocraticSPACE projections. Taking into account polls conducted by Angus Reid, Ekos, Harris-Decima, and Ipsos (the latest Nanos poll is over a month old, so we’ve included and additional Ekos poll through Oct 6 instead) — including polls ending Oct 6 through Oct 14 — we currently project the following: CONSERVATIVE / 40.8% / 152 seats LIBERAL / 27.4% / 84

Will MP Pensions Prevent Fall Election?
Interesting piece in the National Post today on the possibility that pensions could prevent a fall election: One out of five MPs in the House of Commons can boost their chances of receiving a lucrative pension by preventing a fall election and ensuring the current Parliament survives at least until July 2010, a survey by Canwest News Service reveals. The survey examined the number of MPs who were first elected in June 2004 and are less than a year away from having the six years of service required to qualify for a government pension that can kick in at age 55. It found th

Latest Canadian Political Polling
Here are the latest Canadian polling numbers for the 6 national pollsters. I’ll update this when Harris-Decima and Ipsos release new polls. DATE / POLLSTER / CPC / LPC / NDP / BQ / GPC Sep 7 / Strategic Counsel / 35 / 30 / 14 / 12 / 9 Sep 2 / Nanos / 37.5 / 33.4 / 14.8 / 9.7 / 4.6 Sep 2 / Angus Reid / 33 / 32 / 19 / 9 / 7 Sep 1 / Ekos / 32.6 / 32.6 / 16.5 / 8.3 / 9.9 Aug 24 / Harris-Decima / 31 / 32 / 16 / 9 / 11 Aug 24 / Ipsos / 39 / 28 / 14 / 8 / 10 Allowing for 1.2% for “others” (same as 2008), here’s where thin