THE GREAT RECESSION

PICASSO´S VISION

WHAT IF… (II)
What if … As Albert Edwards, Societe Generale’s global strategist, sees the risks running quite the opposite of the consensus, which has a global recovery on track with a steadily falling dollar. Instead, he looks for a double-dip back into recession leading to a surging greenback, with a collapse of “the China economic bubble” resulting in a double whammy for commodity prices. He points to signs of doubts about the U.S. economic recovery, from the labor market remaining

CHINA´S BUBBLE
As Stephen Roach explained in his book ” The Next Asia” and Bill Gross declared yesterday in Bloomberg, China is facing a bubble of their own to confront. Gross : ” “It’s gearing up for export that doesn’t find an end consumer, that’s the real problem in China.” The “systemic risk” of new asset bubbles in global economies and markets is rising with the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates at record lows… The 

SPANISH BANKS: Reorganisation
In an interview with the Financial Times, Miguel Fernández Ordóñez, governor of the Bank of Spain, outlined plans for a series of mergers within months among the “cajas de ahorros”, regional savings and loans institutions. “I think there are at least 15 institutions that should merge with others,” he said. “I hope  next spring we have restructured all these institutions, that’s

WHAT IF…
What if … David Rosenberg sees 1992-1993 al over again :” This is 1992-1993 all over again when the commercial banks used the steep curve as an opportunity to reliquify their balance sheets and the flip side of that process was a listless and jobless recovery.” What if… John William, proprietor of Shadow Government Statistics notes that every recession in the last four decades has had at least one positive quarter-to-quarter GDP reading, only to be followed by a renew

DOLLAR´S FUTURE
A weak dollar is good news for the world or at list that is what Mr.Market thinks. Behind the global economy’s current revival is a returning appetite for risky investments, such as equities and corporate bonds. Now that stockmarkets and economies have bounced back, dollar weakness has returned, causing a headache for countries with floating exchange rates. Europe’s efforts to contain the dollar’s weakness have had rather less impact. This week the dollar slid to $1.50 to the € !!