No One Here But Us Chickens
I know that on Thanksgiving day it is incredibly impolitic to turn the attention away from the season's favorite bird, but I want to interrupt your holiday mirth with a warning. Risks in world markets are rising and it is now time to contemplate positioning for what could be a coming "echo bust". While my contrary nature had me looking for a bottom in the markets all too early and I turned reluctantly bullish this summer (Bull Market Break Out On Tap?), I am now becoming quite nervous about stock market p

Knowing When A Deal May Be Running Away From You
A: I go through this all the time with clients, so I figure to make a nice short discussion on what I look for after a verbal agreement on price has been reached between buyer & seller. How does a buyer know when things are getting a bit fishy? Is their deal at risk? What is normal and what is not normal? Let me try to discuss this in a very simplistic way and tell you the few warning signs I keep on my radar as red flags that the deal may be running away from us. This market doesn't operate in a vacuum and you must understand that ev

'Carry' On!: All In The Search For Yield
A: I realize this is not a direct discussion of Manhattan real estate, but then again, when the ABX's started to plunge in the fall of 2007 that was also a topic I felt worth discussing as a sign that maybe a problem could be brewing in the secondary mortgage markets that could possibly signal a credit event and a stress to the banking system; a ripple effect that could and did ultimately hit out our markets. We have to continue to think outside the box and talk about the stuff that is not in the rear view mirror, but that may lie ahead of us and impact our markets. This is not a fear tactic, its a di

Rent v Buy: The Spillover Debate
I am in St. Thomas right now and have been trying to find a way to weave the thoughts I’ve had on the island with some smart insights for UrbanDigs readers. What, oh what, do St. Thomas as NYC have in common … To generate some good blog fodder, I attended (for the first time ever) a timeshare presentation while bracing myself for whatever heavy sales pitch would follow. … and what was the main thrust of the pitch? Rent vs. buy! (In this case, it was the idea that if you’re normally vacationing for 2 weeks/y

Rosenberg: Fed Can't Raise Rates Until 2011
A: This may be true unless one area of the tradable markets force the fed's hands to raise rates earlier. Imagine a world with surging equities and oil/commodity prices on a souped up reflation trade - can $100 oil, $1,200 gold, and surging commodity prices impact the fed's thinking? How will that help anyone; especially the latter right as unemployment climbs to its ultimate peak for this cycle? As I mentioned before, in my opinion inflation will first come in the form of higher food, higher energy, higher metals, higher commodities across the board, higher taxes, higher rates, higher health care costs, etc..all the stuff that pinches corporate profit margins and squeezes consumers