Unseasonal Rains ...
Unseasonal Rains in Maharashtra?The IMD confirms on Thursday that a cyclonic circulation has formed over the Comorin area. A trough from this system runs thru extreme south peninsula.The latest from several models show that the low off Lanka coast would move north up the Indian coastline, and itensify a bit on November 8 and 9, and then merging into cooler waters off coastal Karnataka and getting stuck before weakening.The system then may curve over land into Maharashtra around November 10th.COLA/ NCEP predict along similar lines.As a result, Mumbai forecast for rain on Monday/Tuesday/Wednessday holds good

Low in South Arab...
Low in South Arabian SeaStreamline map from IMD today indicates the initial formation of a low in the south Arabian Sea. Now, many models show this moving northwards into the Arabian Sea, but, stopping short at 15N, off Goa. Finally, as I mentioned, it may fizzle out due to the passing of an upper air W.D. in the northern plains of

Approaching W.D. ...
Approaching W.D. may counter Arabian Sea system:The trough of lower pressure running from the Arabian Sea thru peninsula into the southwest Bay has shifted into the Comorin area on Monday. ( Thai Map enclosed)The FNMOC has also kept under watch thed

North-east Monsoo...
North-east Monsoon Outlook:Rainfall has occurred over coastal Tamil Nadu and over south Tamil Nadu and Lakshadweep during the last 24 hours ending Wednesday morning.This is seen as a build-up to the northeast monsoon. The easterly and northeasterly winds over Bay of Bengal and peninsular India would now gather further strength over the next few days.An east-west trough from southeast Arabian Sea thru to south Andaman Sea cutting through extreme south peninsular India has formed with an embedded cyclonic circulation over

Delayed North-Eas...
Delayed North-East Monsoon:The wait for the delayed reverse monsoon seems to be over. At least that's what I see. Am I imagining a "loop " of low in the Bay ? ( streamline map).A easterly wave approaching the eastern coast (T.N.region), is seen as breaking the dryness, and precipitating rains along the T.N. coast and A.P. coastal regions.According to the COLA forecasts, the rainfall may start along the T.N. coast from Wednessday. Chennai too can expect some rain to commence from Wednessday, with increasing intensity daily, till saturday at least. from Thursday onwards, the rains are seen penetrating inla